CAN US STOP NETANYAHU FROM DERAILING LATEST GAZA PEACE DEAL?
TRT
World’den Kazim Alam’ın yolladığı sorulara verdiğim cevaplar üzerinden kaleme
alınan “Can US stop Netanyahu from derailing latest Gaza peace deal?” başlıklı
yazı 12.8.3026 tarihinde TRT World’de yayınlanmıştır. Mustafa
Yetim hoca da görüşleriyle yazıya katkı vermiştir. Yazıyı linkten
okuyabilirsiniz: https://www.trtworld.com/article/670064b88c92.
Sorulara verdiğim cevapların tam hali aşağıdadır.
Do you
think the US will be willing to apply pressure on Israel to revise its decision
against withdrawing from Gaza under the Board of Peace plan? If yes: why, and
to what extent?
First,
let me state something clearly. From the moment the ceasefire agreement was
signed, I said that Israel would never abide by it, that this was not a path to
peace, but rather a means for Israel to continue its genocide without
attracting the world's attention and reaction. Both the ceasefire text and the
structure of the Peace Committee are full of loopholes and opportunities that
Israel can exploit to the fullest extent.
The
Trump administration may pressure Israel to reconsider its decision, but I
don't think that will work. Because Israeli politics and society cannot survive
without war. Moreover, there is a powerful lobby supporting the reoccupation of
and settlement in Gaza. Don't forget that there are elections in Israel on
October 27th; in an election atmosphere, no Israeli government can back down
due to external pressures.
Netanyahu,
who served as Israel's deputy ambassador to the US and permanent representative
to the UN in the 1980s, is the master of manipulation. A statement he made at
that time is still relevant today: "If the US government were to oppose
Israeli policy, I know how to manipulate American public opinion against its
own government." There is mid-term election in the US in November. No
American president can take such a risk, especially when Evangelicals within
the Republican Party base are more pro-Israel than Israel itself.
Does the US have any specific levers of pressure that Washington can still hold over Israel? How effective those levers can be if the US decides to use those in earnest?
Of
course. But I don't think the US has ever used any of the levers that would
actually put pressure on Israel. For example, if they cut off arms sales,
Israel would have no choice but to submit. Because neither its own arms
production capacity nor the weapons it receives from other allies can replace
American weapons. They could remove diplomatic protection. They could pave the
way for Israel's trial in international courts. They could stop using Israeli
propaganda language in the media and expose its crimes. They could cut off
economic aid. Remember this: Israel has survived on external support since its
foundation. Israel will not back down unless that support is cut off. But the
US will not use all its cards.
In the
past, American administrations used these cards for a short time. But Israel –
as former Defense Minister Moshe Dayan admitted – has always followed the same
policy: "Our American friends offer us money, weapons, and advice; we take
the money and weapons but reject the advice."
What are the most likely consequences for the broader Gaza peace process if the US cannot -- or will not -- force an Israeli pullback
Let's
not kid ourselves, there isn't even a ceasefire in Gaza, let alone a peace
process. In Israeli political language/understanding, there's no compromise or
reconciliation; there's only subjugation to the enemy. Therefore, what the US
and Israel mean by peace is not what the Palestinians and we understand. Gaza
has already been completely transformed into an uninhabitable place; I wouldn't
be surprised if they try to force hundreds of thousands of Gazans to leave
under the guise of “voluntary exit” when the border crossings open. I don't
think Israel has given up its goal of emptying Gaza and re-occupation.
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